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The concept first appeared in Jay Forrester ‘s Industrial Dynamics [1] and thus it is also known as the Forrester effect. This effeot was last edited on 24 Octoberat In addition to the financially hard measurable consequences of poor customer services and the damage to public image and loyalty, an organization has to cope with the ramifications of failed fulfillment which may include contractual penalties.

In manufacturingthis concept is called kanban. This model has been successfully implemented in Wal-Mart ‘s distribution system.

Bullwhip effect

Articles lacking in-text citations from July All articles lacking in-text citations All articles with unsourced statements Articles with unsourced statements from January Articles needing cleanup from August All pages needing cleanup Articles with sections that need to be turned into prose from August Therefore, it is necessary to extend the visibility of customer demand as far as possible. Gullwhip theory, the bullwhip effect does not occur if all orders exactly meet the demand of each period.

In the s, Hau Lee, a Professor of Engineering and Management Science at Stanford Universityhelped incorporate the concept into supply chain vernacular using a story about Volvo. Better information leads to better inventory positioning and lower costs throughout the supply chain. Suffering a glut in green cars, sales and marketing developed a program to move the excess inventory.

Please help to improve this article by introducing more precise citations. For example, many consumer goods have fairly consistent consumption at retail but this signal becomes more chaotic and unpredictable as the focus moves away from consumer purchasing behavior. The bullwhip effect was named for the way the amplitude of a whip increases down its length. This sequence of events is well simulated by the beer distribution game which was developed by MIT Sloan School of Management in the s.


This method is developed and practised mainly in the German automotive industry, with its expanded supply chains effetk and is established in several EDI-formats between OEMs and their suppliers. In other projects Wikimedia Commons. The concept of “cumulative quantities” is a method that can tackle and even avoid the bull-whip-effect. This demand information is used to queue shipments from the Wal-Mart distribution center to the store and from the supplier to the Wal-Mart distribution center.

This article includes a list of referencesbut its effekf remain unclear because it has insufficient inline citations.

Another prerequisite is that all members of a supply chain recognize that they can gain more if they act as a whole which requires trustful collaboration and information sharing.

This also leads to a low utilization of the distribution channel. The effect is that variations are amplified as one moves upstream in the supply chain further from the customer.

Moving up the supply chain from end-consumer to raw materials supplier, each supply chain participant has greater observed variation in demand and thus greater need for safety stock. Views Read Edit View history.

Bullwhip effect – Wikipedia

The causes can further be divided into behavioral and operational causes. Why Supply Chain Management is so Difficult”. Individual Wal-Mart stores transmit point-of-sale POS data from the cash register back to corporate headquarters several times a day. This article is in a list format that may be better presented using prose.

The result is near-perfect visibility of customer demand and inventory movement throughout the supply chain. It refers to increasing swings in inventory in response to shifts in customer demand as one moves further up the supply chain. In addition to greater safety stocks, the described effect can lead to either inefficient production or excessive inventory, as each producer needs to fulfill the demand of its customers in the supply chain.

Lee, Hau L; Padmanabhan, V. This effek consistent with findings evfekt supply chain experts who have recognized that the bullwhip effect is a problem in forecast-driven supply chains, and careful management of the effect is an important goal for supply chain managers. Barriers to the implementation of a demand-driven supply chain include the necessary investment in information technology and the creation of a corporate culture of flexibility and focus on bulpwhip demand.


Because forecast errors are given, companies often carry an inventory buffer called ” safety effekkt “. Retrieved from ” https: The bullwhip effect is a distribution channel phenomenon in which efcekt yield supply chain inefficiencies.

In spite of having safety stocks there is still the hazard of stock-outs which result in poor customer service and lost sales. Moreover, repeated hiring and dismissal of employees to manage the demand variability induces further costs due to training and possible lay-offs. Human factors influencing the behavior in supply chains are largely unexplored.

Human Factors in Supply Chain Bullhwip. People with high self-efficacy experience less trouble handling the bullwhip-effect in the supply chain. July Learn how and when to remove effdkt template message. Forecasts are based on statistics, and they are rarely perfectly accurate. By using this site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. In periods of rising demand, down-stream participants increase orders.


The further from the originating signal, the greater the distortion of the bullwhi pattern. However, studies suggest that people with increased need for safety and security seem to perform worse than risk-takers in a simulated supply chain environment.

In periods of falling demand, orders fall or stop, thereby not reducing inventory.

While successful in generating the desired market pull, manufacturing did not know about the promotional plans. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.

Because customer demand is rarely perfectly stable, businesses must forecast demand to properly position inventory and other resources. Editing help is available. Instead, they read the increase in sales as an indication of growing demand for green cars and ramped up production. One way to achieve this is to establish a demand-driven supply chain which reacts to actual customer orders.